I. Introduction

The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to what the International Energy Agency has characterized as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. [1] War has echoed the 1970s energy crisis through acute supply shortages, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession, and currency volatility. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March 2026, as Figure 1 shows, oil and LNG exports were stranded, causing Brent crude to surge past $120 per barrel and forcing Qatar and Kuwait to declare force majeure on oil exports.

Figure 1: Map of the Strait of Hormuz (source: http://www.drishticuet.com)

As Figure 2 shows, shipping data from Kpler reveal that combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE dropped from 469 million barrels in February 2026 to 263 million barrels in March 2026 – a significant decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent.

Figure 2: crude oil exports from six Gulf states fell from 469 million barrels in February 2026 to 263 million barrels in March 2026 (source: Kpler and Aljazeera)

As Figure 3 shows, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped following US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, 2026. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, Iran has effectively blockaded and controlled the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global energy trade. As shown in Figure 3, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to near zero due to Iran’s threats and subsequent attacks by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on ships actually navigating the Strait.

In particular, the passage of oil tankers (light blue) transporting crude oil has almost ceased in March 2026 compared to February.

Figure 3: Traffic through Strait of Hormuz, February, March, April 2026 (source: IMF Portwatch & Statista)

As a result, this disruption to oil flows from the Gulf region countries through the Strait of Hormuz made global oil price skyrocket as Figure 4 shows. Brent crude oil price has hovered around $100 per barrel on March and April 2026, following the Iran War on February 28, 2026.

Figure 4: Brent crude oil price (source: Trading Economics)

This disruption to oil flows from the Gulf region countries through the Strait of Hormuz would have huge consequences for the world, says the IEA. However, the impact is not evenly distributed.

As Figure 5 shows, Asia is the primary destination for these energy flows, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea among the largest importers. About 20 million barrels per day of oil, or about 25% of world’s seaborne oil trade, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025 with 89% bound for Asia.

Figure 5: Asia was the biggest destination for oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz (source: IEA & CNA)

As Figure 6 shows, among Asian countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations, accounting for a combined 74% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows in the first half of 2025.

In addition to crude oil, nearly 90% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported through the Strait is also bound for Asian markets, which accounted for around 27 per cent of Asia’s total LNG imports that year. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan imported almost two-thirds of their total LNG supplies via the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.

Figure 6: Volume of crude oil and condensate transported through the Strait of Hormuz, 2020–1H25

“Almost all Asian countries, particularly India, China, Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian countries are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Middle East,” Mr. Lawrence Anderson, a Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, told CNA. [2]

This created a mismatch between where the conflict is happening and where its economic effects are felt. Asian countries were hit hardest by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, this paper analyzes the impact of the Iran war on the energy security of Asian countries. The focus is on China, India, Japan, and South Korea. To this end, the paper first demonstrates the significant dependence of Asian nations on the Strait of Hormuz by examining the volume of crude oil transported to these countries through the Strait. Subsequently, the paper explores the changed energy policies of Asian nations following the Iran War. It examines the efforts of Asian countries to diversify their crude oil import sources away from dependence on Gulf states and toward the United States and Russia, as well as their new energy policies which focused on nuclear and coal energy.

II. Asian countries’ reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for their energy

Figure 7: Oil destination through the Strait of Hormuz, the first half of 2025 (source: Visual Capitalist)

As Figure 7 shows, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that 89% of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to the Asian markets in the first half of 2025. China, India, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations, accounting for a combined 74% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows in the first half of 2025.

5.4 million of barrels of crude oil per day went to China through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025, while 2.1, 1.7, 1.55 and 1.98 million of barrels of crude oil per day went to India, South Korea, Japan, and other Asian countries respectively. In comparison, 0.53 and 0.36 million barrels of crude oil per day went to Europe and the US through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025.

Figure 8: Estimated exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, selected Asian countries (% of total energy imports)

As Figure 8 shows, estimated exposure to crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz as a % of total energy imports was 65.1% for Japan, 62.7% for South Korea, 43.1% for China, 40.6% for India, and 39% for Taiwan in 2025. Therefore, reliance of Asian countries on crude oil on the Middle East countries was overwhelming.

Moreover, Figure 9 shows that Thailand, India, and South Korea are the most vulnerable to higher oil prices, due to their high import dependence. Net oil imports as a % of GDP in 2025 surpassed 4.5% in Thailand, 3% India, and 2.5% South Korea.

Figure 9: Asia’s net oil imports as a % of GDP in 2025 (source: CEIC and Nomura global economics)

As the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and crude oil exports from Gulf states fell from 469 million barrels in February 2026 to 263 million barrels in March 2026, Asian countries have been seeking other sources of their crude oil to compensate their losses in the Middle East.

III. Energy Policies of Asian Countries Following the Iran War

Within just weeks of its outbreak, the Iran War caused immense uncertainty regarding the future of the Middle East and shook the global economy. As Iran effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices skyrocketed, and many oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers in the Gulf region either suspended operations or reduced production. Under these circumstances, Asia suffered the greatest blow from the Iran War due to its high dependence on crude oil from Middle Eastern countries.

However, most Asian economies are expected to see a surge in demand for energy, including crude oil, over the next decade driven by a growing young population, the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and rapid economic growth.

Like previous crises that demanded significant structural changes, the Iran War forced Asian countries – which were hit hardest due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil – to dramatically alter their plans for securing future energy independence. Consequently, as a first step, Asian nations are striving to diversify their crude oil sources to Russia and the United States, moving away from their dependence on the Middle East, followed by attempts to expand the use of nuclear energy and coal.

1. Diversification of oil import sources by Asian countries: Shift from the Gulf region to the US, Russia, and other countries

a. Imports of US or South American crude oil by Asian countries

The US-Iran War caused unprecedented disruption in the global energy market as approximately one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply was unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, refiners in Asian countries, which rely heavily on crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, scrambled to purchase alternative supplies wherever possible, which led to a surge in demand for oil from the United States, the world’s largest oil producer.

As shown in Figure 10, “the increase in US crude oil exports demonstrates that buyers in Europe and Asia are expanding their crude oil sources to the United States, as transportation costs are offset by regional oil price differences,” says Janiv Shah, Vice President of Oil Markets at Rystad. [3]

US crude oil exports recently surged to 5.2 million barrels per day, reaching a seven-month high. This figure approaches the all-time high of 5.6 million barrels per day recorded in 2023.

Figure 10: US crude oil exports climb to near record levels in 2026 (source: EIA)

According to ship tracking service provider Kpler, 2.4 million barrels per day –approximately 47% of US crude oil exports – headed to Europe last week (April 5–11), while 1.49 million barrels per day – approximately 37% – headed to Asia; this represents an increase from 30% during the same period last year. Recent major buyers of US crude oil include European nations such as the Netherlands, France, and Germany, as well as Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea.

Japanese refiners ordered approximately 3 million barrels of US crude oil in April of this year. Sources stated that Japan led the purchase of US crude oil for May shipments in early April, with refiners in South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand also participating. According to traders, at least 60 million barrels of US Gulf Coast crude were purchased from Asian countries for May shipments, a level equivalent to the April shipment volume. This is the highest level in three years. [4]

In addition, Japan reached an agreement with the Mexican government on April 22 to import 1 million barrels of Mexican crude oil, with delivery scheduled for July 2026. This agreement aims to alleviate disruptions in crude oil supply caused by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and to diversify Japan’s crude oil import sources amid growing uncertainty in the global oil market.

As Figure 11 shows, in the case of South Korea, crude oil imports from the Middle East in March 2026 decreased year-on-year by -42% from Kuwait, -13% from the United Arab Emirates, -12% from Saudi Arabia, and -8% from Iraq, while crude oil imports from the United States increased by 79% and from Norway by a staggering 353%.

Figure 11: South Korea’s crude oil imports in March 2026 compared to March 2025 (source: https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2026042407471154924)

Most of the US crude oil bound for Asia is loaded onto Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) capable of carrying approximately 2 million barrels. This includes Aframax-class oil tankers, which can travel more quickly across the Pacific Ocean to East Asia via the Panama Canal.

In addition to Japan and South Korea, China is actively moving to purchase US crude oil. As China readjusts its energy strategy due to disruptions in crude oil supply from the Middle East and a tightening of energy markets across Asia, it is resuming large-scale purchases of US crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Some interpret this purchasing move by China as a significant concession for having suspended US LNG imports in early 2025 amidst heightened trade tensions caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures, and furthermore, as a strategic reward to the United States.

According to Nikkei Asia, China has recently resumed imports of US energy; tanker tracking data indicates that approximately 600,000 barrels per day of US crude oil are scheduled to be shipped to China in April of this year. This signifies the resumption of energy trade between the two countries, which had been suspended due to past trade tensions. [5]

Liang Mi, a columnist from Sichuan Province, China, analyzed, “China is purchasing approximately 600,000 barrels of US crude oil per day, or about 18 million barrels per month, a volume amounting to about $10 billion at current prices.” He added, “Japanese refiners ordered about 3 million barrels of US crude oil in April of this year, which is merely five days’ worth of China’s purchases.” [6]

He also noted that China’s decision to resume large-scale energy purchases from the US comes ahead of the bilateral summit scheduled for this May, and that these purchases will help create a more constructive atmosphere for high-level dialogue between the two nations.

Meanwhile, energy experts predicted that it would be difficult for India to import large quantities of US crude oil, pointing out mismatches between crude oil quality, refinery configurations, and India’s demand. Furthermore, as India’s refineries are focused on maximizing diesel production, the attractiveness of US crude oil is diminishing.

In February 2026, as part of a comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and India, India announced its intention to import over $500 billion worth of US energy, information and communications technology, coal, and other products.

In early 2026, India actively pursued plans to increase its imports of US crude oil to implement the large-scale energy trade agreement and prepare for supply disruptions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, as of March 2026, Russia remains India’s largest supplier of crude oil. While crude oil supplies from the Middle East fell to a record low of 26.3% due to disruptions in transport through the Strait of Hormuz, Russia supplied 50% of India’s crude oil imports.

The fierce competition among Asian countries to purchase US crude oil has also caused conflict between Asian and global refiners. This is because some of the volume exported to Asia was originally reserved for European refiners. According to official data, the Netherlands is the largest buyer of US crude oil, followed by South Korea. [7]

b. Imports of Russian crude oil by Asian countries

As the energy crisis deepens with the US-Iran war dragging on for over a month and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Asian countries are engaging in increasingly fierce competition to secure Russian crude oil.

To increase global crude oil supply, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil at sea in March 2026, and subsequently extended them again in April.

Asian demand for Russian crude oil is rising, and Russia is raking in billions of dollars in revenue as a result. However, experts point out that there are limits to how much Russia can increase crude oil exports – the unrefined oil needed to produce fuels like gasoline and diesel – and that exports are already approaching previous peak levels.

Furthermore, the recent drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil facilities in March 2026 are having a significant negative impact on Russia’s crude oil export capabilities.

Figure 12: Top purchasers of Russian crude oil and gas in March 2026 (Source: CREA)

Prior to the Iran War that began on February 28 of this year, China, India, and Turkey were major importers of Russian crude oil. These countries ignored Western sanctions and imported Russian oil at significant discounts. Even in March of this year, when the Iran War was in full swing, Asian nations, namely China and India, were the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, as shown in Figure 12.

The lifting of US sanctions on Russian crude oil has thrown Southeast Asian countries with high energy demands into disarray. The Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have expressed renewed interest in Russian crude oil. The Philippines, a longtime US ally, imported Russian crude oil for the first time in five years just days after declaring an energy emergency.

While other Asian countries are likely to follow suit, Kpler predicts that China, India, and various other Asian nations will compete for the approximately 126 million barrels of Russian crude oil currently at sea. According to Chinese customs data released on Saturday, April 19, China imported 10.07 million tons (2.37 million barrels per day) of crude oil from Russia, its largest supplier, in March of this year, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year.

China’s crude oil imports from Brazil surged by 154% to 5.03 million tons (1.18 million barrels per day) in March 2026.

By contrast, China‘s crude oil imports from the Middle East decreased significantly. Crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia, China’s second-largest supplier, totaled 5.86 million tons (1.38 million barrels per day) in March 2026, a 31% decrease year-on-year. Imports from Iraq also fell by 46% to 3.97 million tons (930,000 barrels per day) in March. Crude oil imports from Malaysia, the largest transshipment hub for Iranian crude oil, also decreased by 41% to 5.14 million tons (1.21 million barrels per day) in March. Chinese customs did not record imports from the United States, Venezuela, and Iran. [8]

According to a report released by Citibank on March 2, 2026, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted approximately 50% of India’s crude oil imports, 60% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and almost all of its LPG supply. [9]

Consequently, India rapidly diversified its crude oil import sources from about 20 countries to 40 countries by the end of March 2026. Through this diversification, India is now able to source 70% of its crude oil imports from regions outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, India’s crude oil imports still largely come from Russia (No. 1) and Middle Eastern countries, namely Saudi Arabia (No. 2), the United Arab Emirates (No. 4), and Iraq (No. 5). Reuters reported on April 21 that India’s crude oil imports in March of this year fell by 13% compared to February, with half of the total coming from Russia. This is attributed to the suspension of Middle Eastern crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran war.

India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, imported 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in March 2026. Imports of Russian crude oil nearly doubled from February to an average of 2.25 million barrels per day, and the share of Russian crude oil in March rose to an all-time high of 50%. India also purchased approximately 60 million barrels of Russian crude oil for April.

By contrast, imports of India’s crude oil from Middle East fell by 61% to an average of 1.18 million barrels per day, and the share of Middle Eastern crude oil in India’s total crude oil imports dropped to an all-time low of 26.3%.

As India increased imports from Africa to replace Middle Eastern crude oil, Angola took third place in March of this year. Moreover, India is now preparing to import crude oil from Venezuela for the first time in six years to alleviate the shortage of Middle Eastern crude oil imports.

Meanwhile, as shown in Figure 13, South Korea and Japan have purchased large quantities of Russian coal and LNG. However, South Korea did not import Russian crude oil after joining international sanctions imposed on Russia following the outbreak of the War in Ukraine in 2022. According to statistics from the Korea International Trade Association, South Korea imported 6,450,893 tons of crude oil from Russia in 2020 and 7,915,071 tons in 2021. These figures represent 4.9% and 6.1% of total crude oil imports, respectively. However, it plummeted to 3,145,312 tons (2.4%) in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, and imports of Russian crude oil were completely cut off starting in 2023 when sanctions by the US and the EU were fully implemented.

Figure 13: Who bought Russian fossil fuels after EU oil ban in December 2022 to the end of March 2026 (source: CREA)

Japan was a regular buyer of Russian crude oil, including that from Sakhalin, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, after January 2023, Japan suspended imports of Russian crude oil despite exemptions provided by the US and the EU for energy security reasons. It then began importing a small amount of Sakhalin crude oil in 2025.

2. Changes in energy policies of Asian Countries following the Iran War

As explained above, following the Iran War, Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea have been diversifying their crude oil sources from the Middle East to the United States and Russia. In addition to diversifying crude oil sources, these countries are fundamentally redesigning their energy policies to ensure their energy security.

Like previous economic crises that demanded significant structural changes, the Iran War has dramatically altered the energy plans of Asian governments to ensure their energy security and future energy self-sufficiency.

Japan, which possesses the world‘s third-largest strategic oil reserves and is restarting some nuclear power plants that had been shut down following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, is completely revising its existing energy plans and seeking a new vision for future energy supply. Despite public skepticism regarding the safety of nuclear power plants, Japan is leading the introduction and expansion of nuclear energy in the Asian region. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has publicly declared that she would ultimately achieve 100% energy independence through nuclear power generation. [10]

Amid the energy crisis triggered by the Iran War, Prime Minister Sanae’s administration is reportedly considering accelerating the timeline for the full resumption of nuclear power generation. This war in Iran also has the potential to shift public opinion in Japan toward nuclear power in a positive direction.

Other Asian countries are showing similar movements. China has already established plans to build 23 new reactors within the next 10 years and is currently accelerating these plans. Southeast Asian countries that have already been considering nuclear power, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, are also speeding up their nuclear development. The World Bank’s decision last year to begin funding nuclear energy projects is expected to aid these Asian nations’ efforts.

Meanwhile, in South Korea, President Lee Jae-myung recently convened a special cabinet meeting to discuss the impact of the Iran War. Although South Korea has operated several nuclear power plants, true energy independence is impossible due to the need to import enriched uranium amidst concerns over nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula. Driven by the urgent need to strengthen energy security, the Lee Jae-myung administration is signaling the possibility of disregarding these concerns.

However, this decision entails geopolitical risks, including the deterioration of relations with the United States, South Korea’s sole security ally, as well as the high likelihood of a strong backlash from North Korea regarding South Korea’s increased uranium enrichment capabilities. Nevertheless, President Lee is pushing ahead with preparations for domestic uranium enrichment while pursuing renegotiation of the civilian nuclear agreement with the United States.

Meanwhile, Asian countries reintroduce coal-fired power plants despite their adverse effects on air quality and health, as many nations possess domestic coal reserves and the construction costs of coal power plants are relatively low. As recently reported by The New York Times, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan are all building new coal power plants. [11]

Furthermore, many Asian countries, realizing the dangers of Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas following the Ukraine War, strengthen cooperation with European nations to learn from the progress Europe has made in reducing its reliance on fossil fuels. For example, it was projected that by 2025, electricity generated from wind and solar power within the European Union would surpass that of fossil fuels for the first time in history.

Asia holds enormous potential for renewable energy development. According to a report published by the World Bank in 2026, East Asia “possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources that can accelerate the transition to clean energy, enhance competitiveness, create millions of jobs, and improve energy security.” However, many Asian leaders have long downplayed renewable energy, citing reasons such as it being unreliable, expensive, and unsuitable for low – or middle-income countries. The World Bank report revealed that while four countries – China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines — possess a combined potential renewable energy production of 65,000 gigawatts, 97% of this potential remains unutilized. [12]

In the wake of the recent Iran War and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leaders in the Asian region change their attitudes toward renewable energy. Even the Indonesian government, which had previously been indifferent to renewable energy, makes active efforts to accelerate solar and geothermal power projects. In early March of this year, Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadaria stated, “Due to the current geopolitical situation and the ongoing Iran War, the sustainability of long-term energy supply cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, we must optimize all domestic energy resources.” He added that construction of new solar and geothermal power plants is scheduled to begin in late March. [13]

Despite possessing massive domestic oil production capacity, China has expanded its renewable and other energy sources in recent years. Nonetheless, importing significant amounts of Russian crude oil, China stockpiled substantial oil prior to the Iran War, a move that is, in retrospect, considered very wise.

However, for now, it appears that most Asian countries will face the serious problem of a crude oil shortage in the short term. The measures that Europe could have immediately utilized to respond to the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war and the suspension of Russian natural gas imports – namely, rapid diversification of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sources, aggressive reduction of energy demand, and intensive energy storage policies – are virtually impossible for many countries in Asia to implement.

Expanding renewable energy takes a considerable amount of time even for developed economies, and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has not yet even completed the process of gradually reducing imports of Russian crude oil. Unfortunately, as long as the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, Asian countries and their people are expected to face long-term economic hardship.

IV. Conclusion

This paper analyzed the impact of the Iran War on the energy security of Asian countries. The focus was put on China, India, Japan, and South Korea. To this end, the paper first demonstrated the significant dependence of Asian nations on the Strait of Hormuz by examining the volume of crude oil transported to these countries through the Strait. The paper then explored the changed energy policies of Asian nations following the Iran War. It examined the efforts of Asian countries to diversify their crude oil import sources away from dependence on Gulf states and toward the United States and Russia, as well as their new energy policies which focused on nuclear and coal energy.