Just over 100 days after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the United States–Israel War against Iran, which began on February 28, crude oil prices continue to follow a highly volatile path. The cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers have already exceeded one billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day effectively removed from the market — an unprecedented supply shock.

The cumulative inventory deficit is historic. According to the IEA Oil Market Report of May 2026, global oil stocks fell by 129 million barrels in March and by 117 million barrels in April, representing the fastest inventory drawdown ever recorded. The total oil deficit could reach 900 million barrels by September 2026, and rebuilding depleted inventories would require a surplus of approximately one million barrels per day over the next three years.

The world is experiencing one of the largest energy disruptions in history, which, due to its scale and duration, will have severe short- and long-term repercussions. The greatest problem is not the price of petroleum products, but their scarcity.

Where the Energy Crisis Is Being Felt Most

The Strait of Hormuz is (or rather, was) a key chokepoint in the global oil trade. Around 20% of the world’s oil production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply passes through it. Although most of the oil transiting Hormuz is destined for Asia (China, India, Japan, and South Korea), a significant share also reaches Europe.

Regarding LNG supplies, South Asia faces enormous disruptions: 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports come from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as do 72% of Bangladesh’s imports and 53% of India’s imports.

As for aviation fuel, Asia imports almost all of the kerosene it uses from the Persian Gulf, while the European Union and the United Kingdom obtain nearly half of their imported aviation fuel from the same region.

For this product, the issue is not only price but also physical scarcity. With Hormuz closed, supplies are unavailable, and aviation fuel cannot be easily stockpiled.

Consequences for Economies

Due to the shortage of raw materials, oil prices have risen by an average of 50% worldwide, while aviation fuel prices have doubled. A truce could lead to some price declines, but there is little possibility of returning to the original levels (the so-called “rocket-and-feather effect”).

A sustained increase in prices can be expected, although perhaps not as severe as during the oil crises of the 1970s. In fact, at the global level, we are already witnessing demand destruction. This process began with rising oil prices, which in practice function as a direct tax on households and businesses. By reducing purchasing power, these price increases lower demand for other goods and services, potentially leading to an economic slowdown. This is compounded by declining optimism and a loss of public confidence in the economy.

The projected decline in demand of 1.5 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026 would be the sharpest contraction since those recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of the War in Ukraine.

As shortages and elevated prices persist, the decline in demand is expected to spread further. Industrial production forecasts and investment projections are being revised downward, while higher prices are increasingly reflected in inflation expectations.

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by anticipated interest-rate increases and rising inflation, will encourage investors to shift toward U.S. debt securities. A strong dollar is likely to remain with us, as Europe and Asia will continue paying higher prices for the energy they import.

Affected Sectors

The damage caused by the attacks is not limited to oil production facilities and logistical disruptions. The crisis also affects other sectors:

• Aviation and tourism: Rising fuel prices and limited airport operations in the Middle East have reduced demand.
• Automotive: In Europe, demand for electric cars is increasing, especially used ones, with growth of between 40% and 70%. However, European automotive companies had previously made significant cuts to their electrification plans.
• Industry: While Pakistan is slowing its textile industry, China is experiencing a decline in the production of clothing, toys, and other plastic goods. In addition, the Middle East accounts for one-third of global nitrogen fertilizer production (which requires large amounts of gas), leading to higher fertilizer prices and, consequently, increased agricultural production costs. Finally, in Qatar, a helium production plant (one of the EU’s 34 critical raw materials) responsible for one-third of global output has been destroyed. Liquid helium is used in MRI machines, welding, and especially in the production of processors and chips — for information technologies and AI — and primarily in Taiwan, which represents 60% of the global semiconductor market and up to 90% of the processor market.

And what now?

If normal conditions in Hormuz were restored today, returning production levels at affected oil fields to normal could take four to five months, leading to further depletion of reserves. The damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s LNG complex means that full recovery of regional energy infrastructure could take years.

The International Energy Agency estimates that 80% of regional facilities are damaged and that 10% of global oil production has been completely out of service for at least two years. The market will continue to feel the effects of the maritime blockade long after it is lifted.

The effects of the war will not fully appear in global conditions until the coming months, and despite this, stock markets seem to believe that the greatest geopolitical threat has already passed and that the global economy will manage even with expensive oil. In Europe, this situation has forced governments to intervene, either by reducing indirect taxes or imposing price caps.

The Bright Side

In the face of the crisis, Asia is seeking new suppliers while the United States is increasing its production and expects to surpass the 2025 record of 13.6 million barrels per day.

Refining margins have temporarily increased, as price differentials in middle distillates have reached historic highs. Everyone pays for this war, but the major players are coming out ahead. The Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom, and the U.S. ExxonMobil expect to generate around $234 billion in additional profits this year.

Among the potential beneficiaries is also Spain, which expects record tourism growth.

Changing Habits

In this situation, time is the most important factor. If the period of uncertainty lasts long enough, consumer habits will change, as has happened before. After the two oil crises of the 1970s, when crude oil prices surged by 400%, Europe shifted toward smaller cars, invested in nuclear energy development, and explored new energy resource deposits. The consequences of that crisis also include the popularity of bicycles, time changes, and the concept of energy efficiency.

For now, there appears to be a trend toward lower consumption and sustained high prices. More than 100 days into the blockade, the world is simultaneously facing the largest recorded energy shock, a re-emerging inflationary environment with a risk of stagflation, unprecedented depletion of strategic oil reserves, and cascading disruptions ranging from fertilizers to chips.