I. Introduction

Since March 2, 2026, there has been an ongoing war in Lebanon between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah. It is a resumption of major fighting in the Hezbollah–Israel conflict that began in late 2023, and is part of the wider conflict in the Middle East. The war has precipitated a still-developing humanitarian crisis, causing deaths of more than 3,000 people (both militants and civilians) from Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and forced displacement of over 1 million (over 20% of the country’s population). [1]

On May 12, the Israeli military said it had struck more than 1,100 targets since the ceasefire on April 16, including weapons warehouses, launchers and sites where Hezbollah was operating. As Figure 1 shows, The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) already controlled territory up to the Litani River in its campaign against Hezbollah, but Israeli troops are now pushing towards the Zahrani River, about six miles north. [2]

Figure 1: Map of Lebanon and Israeli occupation areas (yellow areas) Source: IDF

With Israeli strikes on Lebanon expanding, the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to renew their fragile ceasefire and create a number of “pilot” security zones inside Lebanon in which Hezbollah operatives would be banned, the US state department has announced. [3]

A joint statement said that the agreement was “contingent on a complete cessation” of attacks by the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, among other conditions.
This agreement was announced in Washington, D.C., on June 3, 2026, following Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon that killed at least nine people and Hezbollah’s rockets fired at northern Israel. However, skepticism was prevalent regarding whether the ceasefire would be observed, as Hezbollah opposed the agreement and demanded the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

As many feared, just two days after the ceasefire announcement on June 5, the Israeli military issued a mandatory evacuation order for nine villages in southern Lebanon and launched massive airstrikes. Israeli attacks continued on June 6, killing at least 12 people in just two days and forcing thousands of Lebanese residents to flee once again.

With this information in background, this paper analyzes the impacts of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon with a focus on casualties, displacement, and economy.

II. Overview of Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

An ongoing conflict between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel began on 8 October 2023, when Hezbollah launched rockets and artillery at Israeli positions following Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. The conflict escalated into a prolonged exchange of bombardments, leading to extensive displacement in Israel and Lebanon. The conflict is part of the broader Middle Eastern crisis that began with Hamas’s attack, with the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2024 marking the largest escalation of the Hezbollah–Israel conflict since the 2006 Lebanon War. In Arabic, the conflict (2023–2024) is referred to as the “Support War” or the “Gaza Support War.” [4]

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah began firing guided rockets and artillery shells at Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms, which it said was in solidarity with Palestinians following the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and beginning of Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip. [5] Israel retaliated by launching drone strikes and artillery shells at Hezbollah positions. Israel also carried out airstrikes throughout Lebanon and Syria. In northern Israel, the ongoing conflict has forced approximately 96,000 Israeli citizens to leave their homes, while in Lebanon, over 1.4 million individuals had been displaced by late October. Hezbollah stated it would not stop attacks against Israel until Israel stops its military operations in Gaza; Israel said its attacks would continue until its citizens could return safely to north Israel.

In September 2024, Israel intensified its operations with two waves of electronic device attacks targeting Hezbollah’s communication systems, and later assassinated the group’s leading figures, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Safieddine. On October 1, the Israeli military started an invasion of southern Lebanon, although it had been conducting limited ground operations for some time. Israeli military operations led to the significant dismantling of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and the destruction of a large portion of its missile stockpile.

A 60-day ceasefire agreement was brokered and took effect on November 27, 2024. The ceasefire required Hezbollah to move its fighters north of the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometres (19 miles) from the Israeli border, while Israel started withdrawing its forces from southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army was tasked with deploying around 5,000 soldiers to monitor the situation and maintain peace in the region. The ceasefire is being monitored by a panel of five countries, which is led by the US, although Israel retains the right to strike at immediate threats in Lebanon during this period. The ceasefire was extended to February 18, 2025, at which time the IDF withdrew from most of southern Lebanon. Airstrikes resumed on March 2, 2026, between Hezbollah and Israel following the 2026 Iran war and the killing of Ali Khamenei. On April 16, US President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day truce. On April 23, Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a three-week extension of the ceasefire. On May 15, the truce was extended by Israel and Lebanon for another 45 days. [6]

Despite this, as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued and Israeli forces advanced further into Lebanon, the US actively stepped in to mediate a ceasefire, and the U.S. State Department announced on June 3 that Israel and Lebanon agreed to resume the ceasefire and establish several pilot security zones to prohibit Hezbollah members from entering Lebanese territory.

Just two days after the ceasefire announcement on June 5, the Israeli military issued a mandatory evacuation order for nine villages in southern Lebanon and launched massive airstrikes. Israeli attacks continued on June 6, killing at least 12 people in just two days and forcing thousands of Lebanese residents to flee once again.

III. Impacts of Israel-Hezbollah Conflict on Lebanon

Casualties

As shown in Table 1, on December 4, 2024, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that 4,047 people had been killed and 16,638 injured in Israeli attacks since October 8, 2023. The deceased included 316 children and 790 women. Among the dead were at least 41 Lebanese Army soldiers and over 200 medical personnel. Several UN Peacekeeping Force (UNIFIL) personnel and peacekeepers were injured in numerous attacks by Israel and Lebanese militias. [7]

On the other hand, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that 397 people had been killed and 1,102 injured in Israeli attacks during the ceasefire period from November 27, 2024, to March 1, 2026. The UN stated that at least 127 of the deceased were civilians. When the conflict peaked in October 2024, more than 1.2 million Lebanese became refugees, 200,000 to 300,000 of whom fled to Syria.

According to the latest figures from the Lebanese Health Ministry, more than 3,412 people have been killed and 10,269 others wounded in Israeli attacks across the country since March 2, 2026. [8]

The war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah began after Hezbollah launched attacks against Israel in support of Iran, following which the Israeli army carried out extensive bombardments of areas inside Lebanese territory.

The casualties during the Israel–Hezbollah conflict (2023–present) by the Lebanese Health Ministry reports are in Table 1.

As shown in Table 1, as the situation in Lebanon deteriorated with casualties mounting and over one million residents fleeing the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the US actively intervened on June 3 to agree to a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel; however, since Hezbollah opposes this, the war between Israel and Hezbollah has not yet ended. In fact, casualties are expected to rise further due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israeli forces launching attacks on Lebanon for two consecutive days on June 5 and 6, resulting in at least 12 deaths.

Table 1: Casualties during the Israel–Hezbollah conflict (2023–present) (source: Wikipedia & https://8am.media/eng/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-war-deaths)

Displacement

As recent conflict in Lebanon has forced thousands of people to leave their homes and flee, urgent humanitarian assistance is urgently needed nationwide.

As of April 22, 2026, Israeli attacks on Lebanon during its latest war with Hezbollah damaged or destroyed more than 50,000 housing units in the country, a government estimate found on Wednesday.

As Figure 2 shows, “within about 45 days (of the Israel-Hezbollah War), we had 17,756 destroyed housing units and 32,668 damaged housing units,” Chadi Abdallah, head of the National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS), told AFP. [9]

Tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced by airstrikes and border attacks related to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah (with recent US involvement), and many families are fleeing to southern regions and throughout Beirut in search of safety. As the violence intensifies, many people are taking refuge in schools, churches, and public buildings. For many families, this is not the first time they have been displaced.

Lebanon is already one of the most densely populated countries in the world, hosting approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees, thousands of Palestinian refugees, and vulnerable Lebanese residents. The recent resumption of conflict is placing an even greater burden on Lebanese society, which has already suffered from years of economic crisis, political instability, and regional conflict.

Figure 2: Israel army destroyed or damaged 50, 000 building or houses in southern Lebanon (source: AlJazeera)

According to the independent monitoring agency ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), Israeli forces have launched over 1,840 attacks in Lebanon since March 2 as of April 7, 2026. These Israeli attacks and its invasion of Lebanon has forced more than 1.2 million people, including 350,000 children, to flee their homes, making it one of the fastest spreading and most severe refugee crises in the world.

As a result, one-fifth of Lebanon’s population of 5.9 million – or 20% – have become displaced due to Israeli attacks in the past month.

Figure 3: Top 10 countries with their populations displaced (source: UNHCR, OCHA, and UNRWA, April 7, 2026)

As shown in Figure 3, compared to other refugee crises, Lebanon’s refugee crisis ranks among the top 10 most severe in recent years.

The global refugee figures are based on the latest 2025 data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and were used to compare refugee rates relative to population. These figures include refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), asylum seekers, and other displaced persons. The figures for Lebanon reflect the most recently available data. As the global refugee crisis continues to evolve, figures for all countries are subject to change.

As shown in Figure 4, recently Israeli forces expanded their offensive and crossed the Litani River on Friday, May 29, occupying Lebanese territory for the first time since 2006.

Figure 4: Israeli attacks expand (source: Aljazeera)

Israel also captured Fort Beaufort, a strategic stronghold near Nabatei, Lebanon’s fifth-largest city. Israeli forces captured the 12th-century fortress in 1982 and maintained control of the fortress for 18 years until their withdrawal from Lebanon.

The US actively intervened on June 3 to agree to a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel; however, since Hezbollah opposes this, the war between Israel and Hezbollah has not yet ended. In fact, large-scale Israeli airstrikes on June 5 and 6 — just two days after the ceasefire announcement — killed at least 12 people and forced thousands of Lebanese residents to flee, leading to expectations that the number of refugees will continue to increase.

Economy

A. Growth rate

The Lebanese economy stands at a critical crossroads, having suffered severe blows from the Israel-Hezbollah War and the US/Israel-Iran War. As shown in Figure 5 and Table 2, real GDP in Lebanon has declined by more than 38% since 2019, and due to the war, economic growth rates recorded -0.7% in 2023 and -7.5% in 2024. The World Bank estimated that physical damage caused by the war would reach $3.4 billion and direct economic losses $5.1 billion in 2024, estimating the total cost required for recovery and reconstruction at $11 billion. However, with a ceasefire implemented from late November 2024 through 2025, the Lebanese economy grew by 4% in 2025. Prior to the outbreak of the US/Israel-Iran War in January 2026 and the resurgence of the Israel-Hezbollah War, the World Bank projected that Lebanon’s economy would grow by 4% this year, similar to 2025. [10]

However, in late April 2026, Lebanese Finance Minister Yassine Jaber estimated that losses from the two wars in 2026 would reach approximately $3 billion. With Israel continuing daily attacks on Lebanon and issuing forced displacement orders even a month later in May, actual losses are expected to be much greater. As the war dragged on, Finance Minister Yassine Jaber projected that Lebanon’s growth rate in 2026 would be negative, ranging from -7% to –10%.

Figure 5: Real GDP Growth rate in Lebanon, 1985-2025 (source: IMF)

Table 2: GDP Growth rate in Lebanon, 2022-26 (출처: IMF Credit Libanais)

B. Inflation

Prices in Lebanon are rising due to supply disruptions caused by the Israel-Hezbollah War and the US/Israel-Iran War, particularly a significant decrease in crude oil supply from the Gulf region following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran.

As Figure 6 shows, inflation in Lebanon reached its highest level in 18 months in March 2026.

Lebanon’s inflation rate rose to 17.3% in March 2026 and 20.0% in April, marking the highest level since September 2024. The main causes were sharp price increases in the housing and public utility sectors (20.3% in March, 26.3% in April) and transportation costs (24.8% in March, 33.3% in April).

As Figure 7 shows, Lebanon experienced hyperinflation during the 2020–2024 period due to the foreign exchange crisis of 2019–20 and a plunge in the value of the Lebanese lira.

Figure 6: Lebanon Inflation, April 2025–April 2026 (source: Trading Economics)

Figure 7: Lebanon Inflation, 2017–2026 (source: Trading Economics)

Lebanon experienced extreme inflation of 84.9% in 2020, 154.8% in 2021, 171.2% in 2022, 221.3% in 2023, and 45.2% in 2024. Then, in 2025, inflation dropped to the low to mid-10% range during the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and fell to 10.9% in January 2026. However, due to the outbreak of the US-Iran War and the resumption of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, inflation rose again, reaching 20% in April 2026.

While the Lebanese people are suffering from high prices, the plummeting value of the Lebanese lira is further fueling inflation. As Figure 8 shows, the Lebanese lira has remained in the 89,000 range per dollar since 2024, making it virtually worthless.

Figure 8: USD to Lebanese lira exchange rate, 2017-2026 (source: Trading Economics)

As Figure 9 shows, the value of the Lebanese lira against the dollar has fluctuated around the 89,000 marks without significant change over the past year.

Figure 9: USD to Lebanese lira exchange rate, July 2025-June 2026. (source: https://www.xe.com)

c. Unemployment and Poverty

In Lebanon, which had already experienced a financial crisis, including declaring national bankruptcy in 2020, jobs are shrinking and people are losing their jobs due to the ongoing war.

As Figure 10 shows, Lebanon’s unemployment rate exceeded 10%, reaching 11.60% in 2022 and 11.50% in 2023, and was estimated to reach 12% in 2024 and 13% in 2025. Lebanon’s unemployment rate averaged 8.98% from 1991 to 2023, peaking at 13.30% in 2020 and hitting a low of 6.40% in 2009.

As Figure 11 shows, the youth unemployment rate is particularly serious, exceeding 20%. Tony Kadra, President of the Lebanese Labor Foundation (LABORA), pointed out that while approximately 43,000 university students graduated in Lebanon last year, the labor market was only able to absorb about 4,000 of them. This means that nearly 39,000 young graduates remain unemployed.

As a result, more than 80% of the population in Lebanon is currently in a state of multidimensional poverty, and the middle class has virtually disappeared, raising concerns about serious social division.

Figure 10: Lebanon Unemployment Rate (Source: World Bank & Trading Economics)

Figure 11: Lebanon Youth Unemployment Rate (source: GlobalEconomy.com)

Following years of compounding economic crises in 2019-20, Lebanon’s middle class has severely shrunk. Estimates indicate that the middle class now accounts for less than 20% of the population, dropping sharply from over 50% prior to 2019. The vast majority of citizens have transitioned into vulnerable or extreme poverty.

Jassem Ajaka, Professor of Economics at the Lebanese University notes that “in 2019, official figures reflected the following distribution: severe poverty: 8%, poverty: 19.8%, lower middle class: 45.6%, upper middle class: 11.5%, and the wealthy segment: around 15%.” [11]

As of 2026, Lebanon’s poverty rate remains very high due to severe economic collapse and prolonged war. Approximately 33–44% of the population lives in economic poverty, while nearly 80–82% suffer from mixed poverty. This implies a lack of access even to basic necessities of life, such as electricity, healthcare, and education.

Economic Poverty: According to reports by the World Bank and Human Rights Watch, more than one-third of the Lebanese population lives below the poverty line. When non-Lebanese nationals (primarily Syrian refugees) are included, this figure rises to approximately 44%.

Multiple Poverty: More than 70–80% of all households are in a state of multiple poverty and are unable to properly secure even basic necessities. Half of Lebanese households are classified as “subsistence households,” meaning their income is only enough to cover essential living expenses, leaving them with no capacity to save.

Cost of Living: The minimum subsistence expenditure (SMEB) for a family of five exceeds $509 per month. As the value of the Lebanese lira has fallen by approximately 98% since the onset of the crisis, the majority of the population relies heavily on aid, loans, or remittances from abroad.

Food Insecurity and Vulnerability: Approximately 1.24 million people—nearly one in four—face severe food insecurity. Approximately 26% of households live in extreme destitution, surviving solely by borrowing money or relying on external assistance.

IV. Conclusion

This paper examined the adverse impact of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict on Lebanon. In particular, the analysis focused on the number of casualties and refugees resulting from the conflict, as well as economic growth rates, inflation, unemployment rates, and poverty rates.

Since the Israel-Hezbollah conflict began on October 8, 2023, the death toll in Lebanon has been recorded at 7,883, and the number of injured at 28,009.

Economically, Lebanon achieved a positive growth of 4% in 2025, when a ceasefire was observed during the conflict; however, due to the resumption of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah on March 2, 2026, economic growth in 2026 is projected to decline to between -7% and –10%.

Inflation in Lebanon, which exceeded 200% in the early 2020s, fell to the low 10% range in December 2025 and January 2026; however, it rose again to 20% in April as energy prices surged and transportation costs increased significantly due to the outbreak of the US-Iran War on March 2, 2026, and the resumption of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. In addition, this paper showed that poverty in Lebanon has become serious due to the plummeting value of the Lebanese lira and rising unemployment.